Independent mortgage math, no lender rankings
Stay on your rate, or refinance?
A lower rate is not the same as a better loan. Enter the loan you have and the quote you were offered. We show the payment change, the break-even month, the interest over the years you will actually stay, and whether the new term quietly restarts your clock.
Rate context: Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed average at 7.28% and the 15-year at 6.60% for the week released October 1, 2026. Your quote will differ; use your quote, not the average.
- Freddie Mac PMMS rate context, dated on page
- CFPB closing-cost categories
- Rates you enter, never a sold quote
- Educational only, not a loan offer
Try it with your numbers
The calculator below runs on your balance, your current rate, the quote in front of you, and the years you expect to stay. It prints its assumptions with the result, including the term restart warning when a new term runs longer than the time left on your current loan.
Refinancing wins on these inputs if you stay past month 17. Over your 7-year horizon it comes out about $19,992 ahead after closing costs.
- Current payment (principal and interest)
- $2,883 per month
- New payment (principal and interest)
- $2,528 per month
- Monthly change
- $355 less
- Break-even month
- Month 17
- Interest if you stay 7 years, current loan
- $200,031
- Interest plus closing costs, new loan
- $180,040
- Net over your stay horizon
- $19,992 ahead by refinancing
- Lifetime interest difference (full term, after closing)
- $17,893 less with the refinance
Term restart warning: the new 30-year term runs longer than the 27 years left on your current loan. A lower monthly payment can still cost more over the full life of the loan. Compare the lifetime interest line above, not just the payment.
Assumptions printed in full: fixed rates for the whole term, no points beyond the closing cost figure you entered, no cash out, no prepayment, taxes and insurance excluded because they do not change with the lender. This is an estimate for education, not a loan offer.
Start with the decision
Break-even, explained
The formula, what counts as a closing cost, and the two ways break-even gets dressed up by lenders.
Rate-drop scenarios
Worked examples for common drops, from 8% down to 6%, on a stated $400,000 example with closing costs included.
Rate tracker
The latest Freddie Mac survey release, what the average does and does not say about your quote, and how to use it.
Every section on this site
Calculator
Your balance, quote, closing costs, and stay horizon, with break-even and lifetime interest side by side.
Decision guides
Break-even, cash-out risk, ARM decisions, no-cost tradeoffs, and when refinancing is a mistake.
Rate-drop scenarios
Eight worked drops on one stated example loan, so the fee stack and term restart stay visible.
Closing costs
Lender fees, third-party fees, prepaids and escrow, and lender credits, line by line.
Rate tracker
The Freddie Mac survey release this site tracks, what it means, and what it cannot tell you.
Glossary
Plain-language definitions for break-even, points, lender credits, escrow, and term restart.
Decision guides
Refinance break-even, explained with the costs left in
Break-even is the month your refinance savings finally repay the closing costs. Here is the math, a worked example, and the two ways lenders make it look better than it is.
When refinancing is a mistake, even at a lower rate
A lower rate can still lose money. Six situations where refinancing usually hurts: short stays, late-loan refinances, small balances, and the term restart.
Cash-out refinancing: the risks nobody puts in the ad
A cash-out refinance converts home equity into a larger loan. What it costs, what it risks, and the questions to answer before taking cash out.
Rate-and-term vs cash-out refinancing: what actually differs
Two refinance types, two different price tags. How lenders classify your loan, why cash-out costs more, and how the classification can change mid-application.
Refinancing from an ARM to a fixed rate: when certainty is worth paying for
An adjustable rate mortgage trades a lower start for future uncertainty. How to compare keeping the ARM against locking a fixed rate before the first adjustment.
The no-closing-cost refinance: where the costs actually go
No-cost refinances move fees into the rate or the balance instead of deleting them. When that trade is fine, and when it quietly gets expensive.
How StayOrRefi decides what to publish
Every figure on this site traces to a named public source with a check date shown on the page. Rate context comes from Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Closing cost categories follow Consumer Financial Protection Bureau guidance and the Loan Estimate format. Where a number is an example, the page labels it as one and states the balance, term, closing costs, and stay horizon behind it. Read the methodology for the formulas, the about page for how publishing works here, and the disclaimer before acting on any example.
Need the general mortgage math instead?
Amortization schedules, extra payment effects, and affordability calculators live on CalculatorVillage. StayOrRefi keeps only the stay-or-refinance decision, and sends you there for the wider math instead of duplicating it. When you have a quote in hand, come back and run it through the calculator with your closing costs and your stay horizon, then check the result against the break-even guide.